2024: THE YEAR OF SETBACKS FOR IRAN AND ITS AXIS

Sat 07 December 2024:

History will record that the year 2024 was a critical year with all its phases, developments and wars, inflicting severe harm to the project and status of Iran, its axis and its allies more than any year before it.

Israel’s aggression continued in its war of extermination on Gaza. The number of martyrs and victims of its brutal war on Gaza at the beginning of this year reached about 20,000 when the International Court of Justice issued its report on Israel committing what amounted to war crimes. This followed the Republic of South Africa filing a lawsuit accusing Israel of committing the war crime of genocide against civilians in Gaza. Due to the continuation of the genocidal war, the number of victims today has gone over 45,000 and the number of wounded is over 100,000, in addition to all the residents of Gaza becoming displaced, refugees, bleeding and hungry, to the point that the World Food Programme is talking about a famine crisis spreading throughout Gaza – especially in the north, and about the rise in food prices!

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The most extremist government in the history of the Occupation in more than three-quarters of a century dared to expand the scope of its aggression and its rabid war by bombing the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1 April, violating the sovereignty of two countries and killing leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Iran responded for the first time in its history with a missile and drone attack on Israel directly. The US, UK, France and Jordan contributed to confronting the Iranian missiles and drones, in an Iranian effort to impose fear to deter Israel from attacking Iran in its allies’ sites, especially in Syria.

Israel’s long arm reached out and struck Al-Hudaydah in Yemen to send a message to Iran and its allies about its ability to take revenge, after the Houthis bombed Tel Aviv and Eilat with missiles and ballistic drones.

However, the harshest blow was expanding the scope of the war and launching a war on Lebanon by targeting Hezbollah, the strongest arm and the jewel in the Iranian crown among Iran’s allies in the region. During two months of an annihilation war that targeted civilians from southern Lebanon to the southern suburbs of Beirut, and even Beirut itself, in a manner that exceeded Israel’s aggression on Lebanon in the summer of 2006, it assassinated several Hezbollah leaders, including Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, and his potential successor Hashem Safieddine, as well as the leaders of the Radwan Brigade – the elite military leadership brigade and the founding members of Hezbollah. The Occupation also worked on creating strife between Hezbollah and its environment, including and the Sunni and Christian components of Lebanese society.

Israel also attacked Iran by assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas political bureau in Tehran, and, after that, assassinating Yahya Sinwar and the leaders of Hamas in Gaza! Iran then took revenge on Israel after the assassination of Haniyeh and Nasrallah to reassure its allies and deter Israel. Today, Iran is still preparing for a retaliatory response to Israel’s latest aggression to restore the balance of fear.

Netanyahu stressed in his speech on the 60-day truce with Hezbollah in Lebanon the reasons for stopping the war, albeit temporarily: Israel has achieved accomplishments on the seven fronts it is fighting against Iran and its proxies – and to achieve three main goals: Focusing on the Iranian threat, reactivate the armed forces and unify their ranks, separating the Gaza front from the Lebanon front, and isolating the Hamas movement.

Not even a day had passed since the truce in the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and since Netanyahu warned and threatened Bashar Al-Assad against “playing with fire” before the Syrian armed opposition forces, led by Al-Nusra Front and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise military operation by sweeping the western and southern countryside of Aleppo, and the opposition forces entered the city of Aleppo and imposed almost complete control over the city and dozens of cities and villages in the countryside of Aleppo and the strategic city of Saraqib, as well as cutting off supply lines. The Syrian army forces and Iranian factions and militias then surrendered and fled, leaving their equipment, bases, tanks and vehicles without resistance.

This is after dealing a harsh blow to Hezbollah’s military and political capabilities and limiting its capabilities, along with striking the Houthis twice in Yemen and threatening to target the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, in a clear Israeli effort, with the support of the US, to separate the arenas, and leave Hamas to face the Zionist war of extermination alone by separating and isolating the arenas that support Hamas.

The liberation of Aleppo by the Syrian opposition is a major setback for the regime, Iran and its militias, as Aleppo is the economic and industrial capital of Syria and will strengthen the opposition’s power by linking Aleppo to Idlib, its stronghold.

This completely changes the scene and strengthens the role and position of the armed opposition, raising hopes of weakening the Syrian regime and as well as repeating the setbacks of Iran and its proxies.

The Syrian Foreign Minister accused the attack on Aleppo of serving the goals of the Israeli project and its sponsors, while the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, denounced the attacks by the Syrian opposition. He accused “America and Israel of planning the Syrian opposition’s attacks after Israel’s defeat in Lebanon and Palestine”.

Analysts loyal to the Syrian regime accused Turkiye of being involved in the opposition’s attack on regime forces, while Turkiye described the clashes in Aleppo as an unwanted escalation that threatens civilians.

Russia described the opposition’s escalation and clashes in northern Syria as an attack on Syrian sovereignty and demanded the restoration of the Syrian state and the imposition of its sovereignty over Syrian territory.

It is clear that Iran and its axis have suffered painful setbacks to weaken its influence and harm its expansionist project, the latest of which was the weakening of the grip of the Assad regime. With it, the influence and power of Iran and its proxies in the region weaken and decline. This also means Russia’s strategy and role in the Middle East are confused. However, reality means that the future of Iran’s project and its axis will remain foggy, awaiting Trump.

Moreover, Russia’s influence is targeted in the Middle East, despite its support for the Syrian regime, in response to Russia’s progress in Ukraine, so that Syria can remain a bargaining chip that strengthens Russia’s influence in the region. Meanwhile, Turkiye to weaken Assad’s influence and force him to negotiate over the Kurds.

Along the way, Netanyahu hopes that all of this will form a new Middle East, but there are difficulties that still stand in the way.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Independent Press.

Author:

Dr Abdullah Khalifa Al-Shayji

Professor in the Department of Political Science, Kuwait University

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Quds Al-Arabi on 1 December 2024

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