BEYOND SECTARIANISM: HOW TÜRKIYE QUIETLY SHIELDS IRAN AND REDEFINES MUSLIM GEOPOLITICS

Wed 25 June 2025:

While much of the world sees Iran and Türkiye as perennial rivals—one Persian, the other Turkic; one Shia-led, the other Sunni-rooted—a closer look reveals something far more nuanced. Especially under Erdoğan’s leadership, Türkiye has developed a non-aligned posture that, while never openly allied with Iran, has repeatedly shielded it from Western pressure—within NATO, the UN, and through robust economic interdependence.

To understand this posture, we must first understand where Türkiye came from.

From Secular Pro-Western to Islamic-Inflected Diplomacy

Under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and the early republican establishment, Türkiye’s foreign policy was strictly pro-Western, rooted in secularism and a doctrine of strategic detachment from Middle Eastern entanglements. It joined NATO in 1952, aligned with U.S. Cold War interests, and distanced itself from Islamic blocs.

This began to shift notably after Erdoğan’s AK Party came to power in 2002. Türkiye began to project a more Islamic-inflected, independent foreign policy: re-engaging with the Middle East, hosting Muslim Brotherhood affiliates, mediating regional disputes, and positioning itself as a diplomatic bridge between the Western-led order and its adversaries.

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The 2010 Fuel-Swap Deal: Türkiye as Mediator

In May 2010, Türkiye and Brazil brokered a fuel-swap deal with Iran: 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium would be sent to Türkiye in exchange for fuel rods for Iran’s Tehran Research Reactor, critical for medical isotope production. At the time, this covered about 50% of Iran’s uranium stockpile—down from 80% when the original Western deal was floated eight months earlier.

Western capitals dismissed the deal as a spoiler, as it came just before a UN Security Council vote on new sanctions. Nonetheless, Türkiye—then a Security Council member—voted against the sanctions, alongside Brazil. This marked a rare and visible rupture between Ankara and Washington.

For Türkiye, the deal was not about siding with Iran—it was about demonstrating that a Muslim-majority country could negotiate diplomatically where Western pressure had failed.

NATO Shielding: Blocking Anti-Iran Measures

In the same year, Türkiye blocked NATO efforts to formally list Iran as a missile threat in its 2010 Strategic Concept. Although Ankara agreed to host a U.S.-operated NATO radar system in eastern Türkiye, it refused to share radar data with Israel, and vetoed Israeli participation in NATO joint activities and observer programs.

These were not acts of ideological solidarity with Iran, but strategic resistance against Western and Israeli attempts to securitize and isolate Tehran via multilateral institutions.

A Forgotten Reality: Iran Was Once Sunni

Often overlooked in sectarian narratives is the historical fact that Iran was majority Sunni until the 16th century, when the Safavid dynasty enforced Shiism to distinguish itself from the Ottoman Empire. The Ottomans, despite being at war with the Safavids, never declared Shiism heretical. This policy of sectarian restraint endures in modern Türkiye.

Even during the Syrian war—where Iran used overtly sectarian rhetoric to justify its military involvement—Ankara avoided reciprocating with Sunni supremacist language. This has allowed Türkiye to maintain tactical opposition to Iran in regional theatres while preserving broader diplomatic flexibility.

Raisi’s Death and Strategic Continuity

The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in May 2024 served as a reminder of the deeper strategic undercurrents shaping Türkiye-Iran relations. Erdoğan publicly mourned Raisi, calling him “a wise statesman and brother of Türkiye.” A national day of mourning was declared—an extraordinary gesture for a non-Turkish head of state.

In the weeks following, Türkiye intensified diplomatic engagement with Tehran, emphasizing the continuity of shared energy, trade, and security interests. The message was clear: Türkiye values a strong and stable Iran—not to endorse it, but to prevent further destabilization of its region.

Economic Interdependence

Iran and Türkiye are tightly linked economically:

Bilateral trade in 2023 reached between $5.5 billion (Turkish figures) and $11.7 billion (Iranian estimates).
In Q1 2024, trade totaled $1.36 billion, with Turkish exports up 16%.
Türkiye imports Iranian gas, oil, and petrochemicals, while exporting machinery, food, and construction materials.
Over 2 million Iranian tourists visited Türkiye in 2022, and visa-free travel facilitates soft-power exchange.

Ankara has quietly helped Iran circumvent some sanctions through barter, local-currency arrangements, and shadow banking. Türkiye is not breaching Western law—it is preserving regional economic autonomy.

The Broader Context: Russia and China as Strategic Layers

Türkiye’s balancing act with Iran gains even more significance when understood within the larger context of Russia and China’s growing alignment with Tehran.

Russia and Iran are military allies in Syria, share drone and energy tech, and confront U.S. sanctions together.
China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic partnership in 2021 involving $400 billion in investment and energy cooperation.
Both powers have consistently blocked U.S.-led sanctions at the UN and supported Iran’s integration into multilateral blocs like BRICS and SCO.

Türkiye, while not formally part of this Eurasian axis, often finds itself in strategic overlap:

It trades in local currencies with China, Iran, and Russia.
It defies NATO and U.S. diktats when national interest dictates.
It mediates between adversaries (Russia-Ukraine, Iran-West), giving it credibility neither fully Western nor fully Eastern powers possess.

Rather than aligning completely with any bloc, Türkiye uses its NATO membership as a shield, its Muslim-majority identity as leverage, and its economic ties as pressure points. This unique positioning allows it to function as a swing state in the emerging multipolar order, protecting Iranian sovereignty not out of ideology, but out of shared resistance to hegemony.

Final Word: Strategic Nonalignment in a Multipolar World

Türkiye is not confused—it is calibrated. It won’t burn bridges with the West, but it will build them toward the East. It won’t endorse Iran’s ideology, but it will protect its sovereignty. It won’t join China and Russia outright, but it will draw strength from their rise.

In a world of collapsing certainties, Türkiye is creating a new template for Muslim-majority diplomacy: non-sectarian, anti-imperial, economically sovereign, and diplomatically disruptive.

When the world demands binary answers—“Are you with us or against us?”—Türkiye replies:

“We are with our region. And we won’t let you burn it down.”

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Independent Press.

Author:

Mariam Jooma Çarikci

Mariam Jooma Çarikci is an Independent researcher, focused on the politics of Africa, Zionism in Africa, and Türkiye’s evolving role in the Middle East and Africa.

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