BIG BUSINESS LOOMS LARGE IN ANC SUCCESSION RACE

Fri 25 July 2025:

Analyst claims corporate interests, not party structures, are the “star of South African politics” and will likely determine President Cyril Ramaphosa’s successor.

As the African National Congress (ANC) quietly begins the chess game of who will succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa, political analyst Sandile Swana asserts that the true kingmaker will not be the party’s branches, but rather corporate interests.

In a political climate shaped by a bruising election and a Government of National Unity (GNU), the battle for the ANC’s future is being framed as a contest between “big business” and those within the party vying for control.

The question of who will next lead the ANC, and potentially the country, is intensifying despite official party directives to quell such discussions. While names like Deputy President Paul Mashatile, and even business mogul Patrice Motsepe, are being floated, Swana argues the guiding influence comes from outside Luthuli House.

“The light that they have, the light that gives them direction is the light that comes from big business,” he stated, identifying this as a continuation of the “CR17 agenda.” This influence, he suggests, is the dominant force, with big business aiming to “capture the ANC processes to be submissive” and shape the country’s next governing coalition.

This struggle for the soul of the party comes at what Swana calls a “very, very critical point in its history,” following a period of leadership he describes as a “cataclysmic catastrophe.” The analyst contends that since Thabo Mbeki’s presidency, the ANC has failed to choose a correct leader, with both Jacob Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa overseeing a “total decimation of the country and of the African National Congress.”

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The contenders and the power brokers

The succession race, traditionally driven by internal factions and provincial power bases, now appears to be a more complex affair. While ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has publicly dismissed succession talk and National Chairperson Gwede Mantashe has ruled himself out of the race, the undercurrents suggest a different reality.

Swana believes the contest will ultimately be “between Mashatile and big business.” He notes that Mashatile has been “preparing to take over the presidency of the ANC for some time now” and is unlikely to “take it lying down.” However, the power of corporate money in influencing leadership outcomes remains a significant factor.

“I think that these things go according to bribes. You pay your way into the presidency,” Swana commented, suggesting that scandal is no longer a barrier to the top job. “You don’t become president of the ANC by being clean. That’s not a requirement.”

The potential candidacy of Patrice Motsepe is seen as a direct extension of the current pro-business trajectory. “Patrice Motsepe would be a continuation of the Cyril Ramaphosa agenda quite easily,” Swana explained, adding that in the ANC’s current form, which is “controlled by business now,” such a move is plausible.

The influence of big business is so pervasive, in Swana’s view, that he sees it “the star of South African politics” for now, having “outwitted” the so-called progressive caucus in the formation of the GNU.

The leader of the ANC remains the most likely candidate to become the president of the country, even in a coalition government. The central question, as framed by Swana, is whether an alternative to the corporate-backed agenda can emerge. “The only question for me politically is whether Mashatile has got a credible alternative, whether he can outwit big business. That is the game.”