CHINA, OTHER STATES, FORTIFY NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARSENALS: REPORT

  China’s DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles on display to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

Tue 13 June 2023:

Think tank SIPRI says China had 17 percent more nuclear warheads in January 2023 compared with the year before.

The world’s nine nuclear-armed states are continuing to modernise their nuclear arsenals, with China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads rising by 17 percent in 2022, according to the Sweden-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

In the SIPRI Yearbook 2023 released on Monday, the think tank said it estimated China’s nuclear arsenal had increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and that it was “expected to keep growing”.

Depending on how China decided to structure its forces, the report added, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the United States or Russia by 2030, it added.

THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ARSENAL GREW LAST YEAR, SIPRI SAYS

“China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal,” Hans M Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction programme and director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a statement.

“It is increasingly difficult to square this trend with China’s declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces needed to maintain its national security.”

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the world’s largest fighting force but China is also engaged in an effort to modernise its military equipment and weaponry.

Globally, SIPRI estimated there were 12,512 nuclear warheads in January 2023, with about 9,576 in military stockpiles for potential use—86 more than in January 2022.

Of those, an estimated 3,844 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and about 2,000—nearly all of them from Russia or the US—maintained in a state of high operational alert, meaning that they were fitted to missiles or held at airbases hosting nuclear bombers.

SIPRI noted that despite China’s increasing nuclear stockpile, the US and Russia together possess almost 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons.

And while their arsenals seemed to remain stable in 2022 despite heightened tensions following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, SIPRI noted that transparency regarding nuclear forces had declined in both countries as a result of the continuing war.

In February, Russia said it was suspending its participation in the New START Treaty, a key pillar of US-Russian nuclear arms control.

Earlier this month, Washington said it would stop providing Moscow with updates on matters including missile and launcher locations, in what Washington describes as a retaliatory “countermeasure” due to Moscow’s “violations” of the accord. It had already suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia soon after the February 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is planning to position tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as early as July, and had regularly threatened nuclear retaliation since the war in Ukraine started and Western allies, including the US, rallied to help the country defend itself.

Among the world’s other nuclear states, SIPRI noted India and Pakistan also appeared to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, developing new types of nuclear delivery systems.

“While Pakistan remains the main focus of India’s nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across China,” the report said.