INDIA’S POPULATION STARTS TO SHRINK

Fri 26 November 2021:

According to data issued by the National Family Health Survey, India’s overall fertility rate has dipped below the replacement level for the first time (NFHS).

According to the United Nations’ population division, countries experiencing below-replacement fertility — lower than 2.1 children per woman — indicates that a generation is not producing enough children to replace itself, eventually leading to an outright reduction in population.

Given the United Nations’ replacement fertility rate of 2.1, India’s population is on the decline, with deaths outnumbering births.

Only five of India’s 28 states and eight union territories have fertility rates higher than two, prompting severe concerns for the country’s population’s future.

The significant increase in contraceptive use identified in the same survey could be linked to India’s declining fertility rate. The use of modern contraceptives increased from 54 percent in 2015-16 to 67 percent in 2019-21 in India.

Despite the concern about India’s population levels, care for newborn babies has improved in the country, with immunization drives for children rising from 62% to 76% in some parts, and even up to 90% in others. Similarly, family planning services improved in India, with unmet needs declining from 13% to just 9% throughout the country.

With more than 1.34 billion people, India is the world’s second most populous country, trailing only China’s 1.39 billion people.

“The country has been aiming for a TFR of 2.1. A fall to 2 means we have achieved our goal of population stabilisation. This means we will possibly still become the most populous country in the world – it was expected somewhere between 2024-2028 – but it will now be delayed. It essentially means that we need not worry about a very large population being a challenge to our development,” Reddy told the Indian Express.

The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) is a multi-year survey conducted across India that looks at a variety of issues such as fertility, newborn and child mortality, family planning, reproductive health, and more. The information is given to India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in order to supply the government with health and family welfare information.

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