INFLATION FUELLED BY UKRAINE WAR MAY DRIVE PROTESTS AND RIOTS, WORLD BANK WARNS

Thu 10 March 2022:

Soaring energy and food costs prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might increase food security worries in the Middle East and Africa, as well as fuel social unrest, according to World Bank senior economist Carmen Reinhart.

On Friday, Germany will hold a virtual meeting of agriculture ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) leading nations to examine the consequences of the invasion, which comes amid rising fears about food market stability.

“There will be important ramifications for the Middle East, for Africa, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, in particular,” which had already been experiencing food insecurity, Reinhart told Reuters in an interview.

“I don’t want to be melodramatic, but it’s not a far stretch that food insecurity and riots were part of the story behind the Arab Spring,” she said, adding that successful and unsuccessful coups had increased over the past two years.

The Arab Spring refers to a series of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that took place in the Middle East and North African beginning in 2010, beginning in Tunisia and spreading to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain.

Sudden spikes in food prices can lead to social unrest, as happened in 2007-2008 and again in 2011, when global food price increases were associated with riots in more than 40 countries.

Surging energy and food prices could also push policymakers to implement more subsidies, experts say, adding to the heavy debts of many low-income countries, of which about 60 are either already in or near debt distress.

Last month, the World Bank warned that the consequences could be particularly severe in the Middle East and North Africa, where Egypt imports up to 80% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Mozambique is also a major wheat and oil importer.

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

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