IRANIAN POLITICS HEAT UP FOLLOWING RAISI’S DEATH AS 20 LEADERS LIKELY TO FIGHT OVER SUCCESSION

Mon 27 May 2024:

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has sparked significant political upheaval, with over 20 potential candidates emerging to succeed him. The succession process will commence once the Iranian Guardian Council, a body of 12 elite members closely tied to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, approves the candidates. The council’s decision will determine whether the election follows a hardline approach or allows for a more open competition.

During this period, the Iranian establishment aims to maintain internal political stability as Khamenei seeks a candidate who can ensure predictability and stability in the nation facing ongoing turmoil.

Among the prominent contenders is Saeed Jalili, who announced his candidacy on Sunday. Jalili is well-regarded for his expertise in Iranian foreign policy and his involvement in foreign ministry and nuclear negotiations between 2007 and 2013.

Tehran’s Mayor, Alireza Zakani, is also reportedly preparing a campaign team, though he has yet to declare his candidacy.

Traditional conservative candidates include Parviz Fattah, former head of the Mostazafan Foundation, and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who served as parliament speaker from 2020 to 2024.

The registration for presidential candidates will begin on Thursday and last for four days. Historically, up to 10 candidates have entered the race, though only four did so in 2021.

Some Iranian media outlets speculate that if the election results in chaos and unpredictability, the current vice-president and interim president, Muhammad Mokhber, might be asked to assume the role for five years. Despite concerns about corruption and his administration’s handling of less effective COVID-19 vaccines, Mokhber’s extensive experience, particularly in managing the supreme leader’s affairs, makes him a trusted candidate.

Raisi, backed by a group that wanted to see him become Supreme Leader, clearly wanted the role, said Vali Nasr, professor of Middle East Studies and International Affairs at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“Now they don’t have a candidate, and that opens the door for other factions or other figures to emerge as serious contenders,” he said.

For Raisi, a mid-ranking Shi’ite cleric, the presidency had been a vehicle to reach the supreme leadership. “There’s no other candidate right now (with) that kind of a platform and that’s why the presidential elections in Iran, however they unfold, will be the first decider about what comes next,” Nasr said.

Raisi’s views echoed Khamenei’s on every major topic and he enacted the leader’s policies aimed at entrenching clerical power, cracking down on opponents, and adopting a tough line on foreign policy issues such as the nuclear talks with Washington, two Iranian insiders said.

Khamenei has indicated opposition to his son Mojtaba‘s candidacy because he does not want to see any slide back towards a system of hereditary rule in a country where the U.S.-backed monarchy was overthrown in 1979, an Iranian source close to Khamenei’s office said.

A regional source familiar with the thinking in Tehran said Khamenei’s opposition to hereditary rule would eliminate both Mojtaba and Ali Khomeini, a grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder who is based in Najaf, Iraq.

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

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