POLLSTERS SHOW SUPPORT FOR ERDOĞAN AND AK PARTY LARGELY UNSCATHED AFTER DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKES

Sat 04 March 2023:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan‘s ruling AK Party, facing elections in May, appears to have largely retained its support after last month’s earthquake, pollsters said on Friday.

Two polls this week showed the opposition had not picked up fresh support, partly due to its failure to name a candidate with just two months left before the vote, and partly due to its lack of tangible plan to rebuild areas devastated by the quake.

“The earthquake has not caused the government to weaken as much as the opposition would have expected,” Ozer Sencar, chairman of the polling company Metropoll, told Reuters.

His company’s polling data puts the alliance between the ruling AK Party and the nationalist MHP in the lead in the event of an imminent election.

More than 45,000 people were killed in Turkey and more than a million were left homeless by two massive earthquakes which struck Türkiye’s southeast on Feb. 6 – the worst disaster in the country’s modern history.

Erdoğan indicated on Wednesday that elections will be held on May 14, sticking to his previous plan for the vote.

Erdoğan publicly acknowledged the problems in the early days but then defended his government’s response. He swiftly pledged to rebuild homes, a promise that is likely to help him maintain support among the electorate, said Mehmet Ali Kulat, chairman of the MAK polling company.

“When people go through such a disaster, we see psychological reactions for a few days and that is directed at the government. Once 15-20 days pass, they stay close to whoever promises to rebuild their collapsed house or workplace. That could be an advantage for the government,” Kulat said.

In surveys carried out following the earthquake, support for Erdoğan’s alliance with the nationalist party appeared around 40-41 per cent, Kulat said, without providing a comparison.

Another survey conducted by Istanbul Economics Research between Feb. 16-20 with 2,000 participants showed a slight increase of 0.1 points from January for Erdoğan’s success score.

Thirty-four percent of the respondents in the survey, dubbed the “Turkey Report” said building contractors were those most responsible for earthquake damage.

AK Party voters overwhelmingly blame the contractors for the disaster, Sencar said.

Erdoğan has recovered some support by announcing increases in the minimum wage and steps to facilitate early retirement.

“Following the initial stumble, we have seen the government come up with a more unifying language,” said Nezih Onur Kuru, a researcher with the TEAM research group. “The government has successfully created a perception that it is the one helping heal wounds,” Kuru said.

That seems to have helped Erdoğan’s poll ratings. His alliance with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has kept its support level of 44 percent in the aftermath of the earthquake, according to a survey by TEAM, conducted with 1,930 people on Feb. 19-20.

-Reuters

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