POPULATION DECLINE IN MANY US CITIES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ‘GHOST CITIES’ BY 2100: STUDY

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Sun 21 January 2024:

By the time 2100 rolls around, the almost 30,000 cities that make up the American landscape might seem very different. According to a recent study, by the end of the century, the population of over half of these cities is expected to fall, with a loss of 12–23%.

According to ScienceAlert, these changes, which are impacted by both human actions and natural forces driven by climate change, pose major threat that go beyond city limits.

The study suggests that the cities of the future are more likely to witness shifts in population dynamics, evolving into fractured, thinning, or sprawling communities.

While outright abandonment is not the envisioned outcome, the researchers caution that unless local governments and town planners adapt to the evolving needs of residents, these transformations may lead to unprecedented challenges.

The anticipated decline in population raises concerns about the disruption of fundamental services such as transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access.

As cities shrink and populations age, the potential consequences include grocery store closures, resulting in food deserts, and neglected infrastructure in dwindling towns, leaving communities without essential resources, reminiscent of the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, in 2021.

Originally focussing on transportation challenges in Illinois, the researchers expanded their analysis to encompass all 50 states. Drawing from US census data and climate scenarios, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the potential future of cities, challenging the conventional focus on larger urban centres.

Currently, 43 per cent of US cities are losing residents, a figure that could rise to 64 per cent by 2100, depending on climate scenarios.

According to projections, the Northeast and Midwest will experience the greatest depopulation. Even states like Texas and Utah, which are currently experiencing development, may see considerable population loss in specific cities by 2100.

However, the research recognizes the inherent difficulty in predicting population changes decades in advance and avoids delving into the complex factors driving these forecasts, such as economic and social effects or internal migration.

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

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