Fri 10 May 2019:
An updated count on South Africa’s election results on Friday morning showed the ruling party, the ANC headed toward victory, although well below its count from five years ago. By 07h00, about 17,208 of 22,925 of the voting districts or 75.06% had declared their results.
The tallies up on the large leader board at the IEC’s national results centre in Pretoria, place the African National Congress (ANC) in the lead with 57.21% of the votes, the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 21.84% of the votes and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 10.08%. These are, so far, the leading three parties in the race for the national government. They are followed by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which is currently standing at 2.89%, the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) at 2.48%, African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) with 0.92% of the votes and the United Democratic Movement (UDM) at 0.53%.
Over 26 million voters were registered to vote in Wednesday’s elections, but the Electoral Commission count thus far puts the voter turnout at 65.44%. Political parties went into the polls with different targets. The ANC wanted to stay in power with over 60% of the voters support; the DA wanted to grow its party support, while the EFF was hoping to double their support. However, so far the biggest surprise in these elections is the performance of the VF Plus which has gained more voters in the provinces.
Provincial results
Looking at the results thus far from the provinces, the Eastern Cape, North West, Western Cape and the Northern Cape have captured more than 90% of their voting districts. In the Western Cape, where 94.43% of the districts were captured, data shows that the DA is standing on 54.71%, the ANC on 29.22 % and the EFF on 4.04% while the new party on the block, GOOD, stands on 3.03%. In North West, 94.29% of the voting districts have been captured. The ANC is at 62.39%, followed by the EFF at 18.48%, then the DA at 10.87% and the VF Plus at 10.87%.
About 91.34% of the districts have been captured in the Eastern Cape. Their tallies puts the ANC in the lead with 68.48%, the DA at 15.99%, the EFF at 7.78% while the UDM is at 2.63 % of the votes. In the hotly contested Gauteng province, only 55.83% of voting districts have been captured, where the ANC seems to be skating on thin ice by gaining 50.62% of the votes, the DA is at 27.27%, the EFF at 14.18%, the VF Plus at 3.82% and the IFP at 3.82%. About 62.93% of the voting districts have been captured in KwaZulu-Natal, which was another province eyed by the political parties. The Electoral Commission count thus far shows that the ANC is sitting at 52.88%, the IFP at 16.98%, the DA at 16.98%, the EFF at 8.79% and the NFP at 1.35% votes.
Similar trends are seen in the Free State – where 65.66% of the districts have captured their votes. The ANC leads with 62.61% of the votes, the DA follows with 17.05%, the EFF closely follows with 11.63% and VF Plus is on 3.97%. The surprise in this province is the new party, the ATM, which stands 3.97%. In Limpopo, 60.6% of the districts have declared their votes which shows that the ANC has gained 75.45% of the votes, followed by the EFF on 14.35%, the DA on 5.46%.Mpumalanga has captured 87.81% of their total voting districts, where data puts the ANC in the lead with 69.88%, the EFF at 13.01%, the DA is at 9.98 %, the VF Plus at 2.53 %, BRA at 0.80 % and ATM at 0.62%.
About 97.45% voting districts have been captured in the Northern Cape. Tallies show that the ANC will remain in power with 57.25%, then the DA with 57.25%, the EFF with 9.57%, VF Plus with 9.57% and COPE with 0.87% of the vote.These tallies are set to change as voting continues on Friday.
Rand reaction
Bianca Botes, corporate treasury manager at Peregrine Treasury Solutions said that the rand traded mostly flat during local trading sessions, while experiencing some relief in the overnight sessions. “The local election has come and gone and, as expected, the ANC is leading the national race, with the CSIR predicting a 57.4% result for the ANC, followed by the DA at 21.5% and the EFF as 9.5%. “While the win by the ANC has been largely expected to be rand positive, the current global risk-off environment affected by the US-China trade dynamic has put a dampener on the performance of the local currency,” Botes said. “As the ANC win is digested, markets will swiftly shift their focus to the subsequent actions of the ruling partly, including the announcement of Cabinet by president Cyril Ramaphosa, the State of the Nation address due to follow in June, as well as policies relating to expropriation of land without compensation.
“A key focus as we head in to post-election season will be Eskom and the anticipated restructuring of the power utility as this dilemma remains the biggest threat to economic growth.” Botes said that the global dynamic is largely overshadowing the local developments in terms of elections, “and for the time being we are playing wait and see regarding the threats made by president Donald Trump”. Should The follow through on his trade threats, the rand could once again lean towards weakness, potentially targeting R14.60/$, Botes said. “The flip side, however, should an agreement be reached and Trump does not impose additional tariffs, sees markets resetting to risk-on dynamics, while refocusing on the local elements at play. This could see the rand gain some momentum on the back of carry trade, to target levels as low as R14.10. All we can do now is wait. “The broader range of the rand has been between R14.35 and R14.48, occasionally rising in the overnight session to R14.30, with key support and resistance at R14.30 and R14.50.”
The local unit traded at the following levels against the major currencies, shortly before 09h00 on Friday:
- Dollar/Rand: R14.28 (-0.42%)
- Pound/Rand: R18.59 (-0.36%)
- Euro/Rand: R16.04 (-0.25%)
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