SPACECRAFT THAT FAILED TO REACH VENUS TO FALL TO EARTH: HOW BIG IS THE RISK?

Tue 13 May 2025:

A piece of a Soviet-made spacecraft launched nearly 50 years ago to reach Venus could fall to Earth this week. Experts expect the fall to occur around mid-May. The spacecraft, called “Kosmos 482,” may include a part that scientists believe could be the landing capsule, though the exact piece is still unknown.

The capsule was designed to withstand Venus’s extreme temperatures and pressure, so it may remain intact as it passes through Earth’s atmosphere.

According to Dr. Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, if this part is indeed the landing capsule, its heat shield could allow it to survive the impact with Earth.

However, McDowell added, “The chances of it hitting the ground are low. There’s no major cause for concern, but you wouldn’t want it to fall on your head.”

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THE SOVIET VENUS RACE

Kosmos 482 was part of the Soviet Union’s Venera program, launched in 1972 to reach Venus. However, the spacecraft failed to depart Earth’s orbit and head toward Venus. As a result, missions that failed at that time were recorded under the name “Kosmos.”

Another spacecraft launched during the same mission successfully reached Venus’s surface and transmitted data for about 50 minutes. However, Kosmos 482 remained in orbit. Based on its orbital behavior, experts now believe the object expected to fall is a dense and robust capsule.

LOW, BUT NOT ZERO RISK

According to the U.S.-based Aerospace Corporation, the likelihood of the falling debris causing harm to people is 1 in 25,000. Space debris and old rocket parts enter the atmosphere similarly every year, with most burning up. However, this capsule may be more durable due to its design.

Space traffic expert Marco Langbroek from Delft University of Technology states that the geographical area where the object could fall is vast, including parts of Africa, South America, Australia, the U.S., Canada, Europe, and various regions of Asia. However, since 70% of Earth is covered by oceans, the likelihood of it falling into the sea is higher.

OFFICIALS WARN: DON’T TOUCH

Experts emphasize that if the capsule lands on land, people should avoid approaching it, as old space vehicles may contain hazardous fuels.

Parker Wishik from Aerospace Corporation points out that under the 1967 Space Treaty, the ownership of the fallen debris still belongs to Russia, which may seek to recover the wreckage.

Wishik also highlighted the importance of measures against space debris: “Anything you send to space could come back to you decades later.”

Agencies and A News

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