THE WORLD’S POPULATION EXPECTED TO DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN CENTURIES

Thu 09 December 2021:

According to a new study published in the Lancet journal, the world’s population will decline for the first time ever in the next century.

The world’s population is currently estimated to be around 7.8 billion people. According to the study, the global population will peak around 9.7 billion in 2064, then decline to 8.79 billion in 2100.

Due to low birth rates and aging populations, up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and others, could see their populations shrink by more than 50%.

China, the world’s most populous country, would see its population drop from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

While the study noted the global trend of population decline, it also predicted that some parts of the world would see an increase in population.

This includes North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to triple in population from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 over the course of the century.

According to the study, the population of India, the world’s second most populous country, will be around 109 billion in 2100.

Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Stein Emil Vollset, told IFLScience, “The last time that global population declined was in the mid 14th century, due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.”

According to the study, girls’ education and increased access to contraception will reduce fertility and population growth.

These factors influence the fertility rate, which is the most important determinant of population. The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has during her lifetime. “The global total fertility rate is expected to steadily decline, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, well below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman) required to maintain population numbers,” he added.

Dr Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the Lancet, said in a statement: “The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilization. Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world, one we should be preparing for today.”

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

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