“THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WILL DIE IN EUROPE” IF POPPIES NOT GROWN IN AFGHANISTAN

Wed 20 March 2024:

A Spanish newspaper has reported that the drastic drop in poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has opened a gap for fentanyl in Europe.

A report from the European Drug Monitoring Center warns of the risk that a possible lack of global supply will be replaced with “more harmful synthetic opiates, such as fentanyl derivatives or nitazenes,” El Pais reported.

The poppy is one of the bases of Afghanistan’s economy. The ban on cultivating it by the Taliban, who regained power in 2021, has led to a drastic drop in the number of acres of poppy fields from 575,755 to 26,687. The latest report from the European Drug Monitoring Center warns of the risk that a possible lack of global supply will be replaced with “more harmful synthetic opiates, such as fentanyl derivatives or nitazenes.” Afghanistan produces 80% of the world’s opium, according to the monitor.

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“We have no indication that there are synthetic opiates in Spain, but we are all watching with bated breath,” said the government delegate for the National Plan on Drugs, Joan Villalbí.

“The Taliban announced that they would ban opium cultivation. We didn’t know if it would be for real or just for show. Now we have the first warnings that it could be happening,” sayid Villalbí. The document also points out another risk that comes from the lack of drugs: an increase in “polysubstances” among heroin users.

Villalbí, however, does not rule out the real risk that, if Afghanistan does not grow opium poppies, the production of synthetic opiates will be carried out “in any of the surrounding countries along the heroin route.” And he warns about a product that requires other chemical elements that are mostly produced in China.

Commissioner Chacón disagrees, saying that the process of manufacturing synthetic opiates is difficult, and must be very measured so as not to kill the consumer right away. “It is not so easy to have the knowledge. It is organic chemistry, and molecularly it is difficult,” he says. In his opinion, it would be more plausible for other countries close to Afghanistan, such as India or Kazakhstan, to take over the much simpler cultivation of poppy fields. Last year, the number of poppy-growing acres in Myanmar overtook Afghanistan’s, according to the report by the European Drug Monitoring Centre.

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“It is a window of opportunity,” admits Barcelona’s chief investigative commissioner Ramon Chacón. “They call it the chaos theory: if poppies are not grown in Kabul, thousands of people will die in Europe,” he said, about the consequences that a hypothetical heroin shortage would have on European markets, with consumers who would move on to more dangerous alternatives. But he insisted that the data so far refute that this scenario is immediately looming over Europe.

Opium poppy production in Afghanistan, previously the world’s top supplier, plummeted by 95 percent since the IEA banned the cultivation of narcotics in 2022, a United Nations report said last year.

Taliban has said that it seriously fighting against cultivation and trafficking in Afghanistan.

It has assured countries not to have concerns over the smuggling of drugs from Afghanistan, but help farmers with alternatives.

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Extreme growing conditions

Another thing, the police commissioner points out, is that the Mexican cartels, which supply the United States, decided to cover a possible demand in Europe too. But he counterpoints with another element that, in his opinion, can end the threat. How long will the Taliban maintain the veto? “Afghanistan no longer has aid from the IMF or the World Bank,” he says. In addition, the country is suffering from drought. “The fields of fruit tree crops are decreasing more and more because it is not profitable,” he adds.

The opium poppy, on the other hand, can withstand more extreme conditions. The ban has had a devastating effect on the country’s economy, with a loss of more than $1 billion for farmers, according to the U.S. Institute of Peace, an independent agency.

And if all else fails, and synthetic opiates finally do enter the European market, those involved in the war on drugs are clear that it would be detected immediately. “You would know right away because the main risk associated with fentanyl is overdose,” recalls Claudio Vidal, from Energy Control. And in many cases these overdoses lead to death.

“We are looking at it very carefully,” insists Villalbí, from the National Drug Plan, regarding the monitoring of all the indicators that would demonstrate the arrival of the dreaded fentanyl, which is causing havoc in the United States. In this scenario, Chacón considers that cases of nitazene abuse, which have already been found in Europe, have “higher numbers” than fentanyl. The Health agencies of the United Kingdom, France, and Ireland have issued recent but specific alerts of overdoses due to this type of synthetic derivative, with devastating consequences for health. In any case, Chacón warns, if synthetic opiates reach Europe, “it will be a global phenomenon.”

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

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