UK’S LABOUR TO WIN MOST SEATS IN ITS HISTORY, YOUGOV FORECASTS

Wed 19 June 2024:

Britain’s opposition Labour Party is on track to win the most seats in the party’s history at a July 4 election, according to a YouGov poll published on Wednesday.

The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll predicted that Labour would win 425 seats, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives expected to win 108. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was set to win 5 seats, it forecast.

That would give Labour a majority of 200, it said. The poll was carried out June 11-18, with YouGov speaking to nearly 40,000 voters.

That compared to a prediction of 422 seats for Labour and 140 for the Conservatives at its last MRP poll, published earlier this month before Farage entered the race.

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.

This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.

Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.

Big name losses projected

The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.

The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.

This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.

Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.

Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.

One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.

-with Reuters

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