WHAT CHALLENGES ARE ON THE HORIZON OF THE NEW SYRIA?

Gazing out over his new domain in the capital, Damascus, Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani – otherwise known by his real identity, Ahmed Hussein Al-Sharaa – witnessed the result of a revolution that had toiled through almost 14 long years of suffering, setbacks, betrayals and complex and ever-changing power politics.

It was a revolution he did not start, but which he had carried through on the vehicle that was his group, Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham (HTS), and which seemed to come to fruition at the very right timing. With Russia continuously tied down in Ukraine, Iran significantly distracted with the regional hits it had taken over the past few months and with the Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah having been effectively incapacitated in terms of regional reach, Assad’s loss of his allies meant the inevitable defeat of his inept and crumbling forces – something that was realistically possible even back in 2012.

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Viewing the plumes of black smoke rising over Damascus’s wide expanse following Israeli air strikes, Al-Jolani knew it was a revolution that he must now help transition into the difficult and uphill task of state-building.

The welcome and unexpectedly swift victory by the former rebels swept HTS up – as already the leading authority amongst opposition groups over the past few years – into a clear position of power within Syria, leading to its definite key role in the country’s new government and administration.

That was confirmed when Al-Jolani met with former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammed Al-Jalali, this week to discuss such a transition of power, resulting in Al-Jalali agreeing to transfer power to HTS’s ‘Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). Now, the new transitional government is being formed by Mohammed Al-Bashir, a prominent HTS figure who has served as the head of the SSG and is a close partner of Al-Jolani.

As of this week, Al-Bashir confirmed that Syria’s caretaker government will be composed of SSG ministers, with this process set to maintain security and state institutions until March 2025. From then on, a “new government will form to achieve the aspirations of Syrian society”, as he put it.

As this transitional government assumes its role over the following days and weeks, it will need to apply the same rapidity of the past two weeks to post-revolution goals, with the most pressing matters now being political security consolidation, political unification and international legitimacy.

Despite their sweeping victory and the waves of relief that have rippled throughout Syria, the worldwide Syrian Diaspora, and many non-Syrians themselves, the former rebels have a myriad of security issues they must turn their attention to. First, there reportedly remain small pockets of Assad sympathisers throughout areas of the country, as well as those who collaborated with that regime on a variety of levels in society, education and security. Although HTS has issued an amnesty for those who worked with the former authorities, it may indeed see the need to ‘purge’ or cleanse the government and security ranks and institutions. Such a move is commonplace amongst new power-holders, but this new administration will likely recognise the suitability of doing so carefully and moderately so as not to repeat the mistakes and extremities of Assad’s regime.

Then there are the Kurdish militias to the north-east and east of the country, which the HTS-led government and security forces may soon have to deal with. Agreements have already been struck between HTS and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) during the recent offensive, allowing them to come to an understanding. The Syrian rebels also guaranteed the upholding of the Kurds’ rights, iterating the prominent role they play in Syria’s social fabric.

That largely reduced tensions but only relayed the issue to the back-burner, making renewed clashes an eventual inevitability. Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) factions have already advanced against Kurdish positions in the north of the country, and SDF militias have already moved against Arab communities and tribal forces, leading to the dramatic abandonment of the SDF coalition by the Deir ez-Zor Military Council in that eastern Syrian province.

As of Tuesday this week, local Syrians in the province pushed the Kurdish militias out of Deir ez-Zor city, making way for the new Syrian interim government to absorb the territory. Now, HTS-led security forces are currently launching an offensive against the SDF, reportedly under the same banner of the operation ‘deterring aggression’ that they had fought against the late regime.

The coming days will witness how much of an issue that offensive proves to be – particularly with the potential involvement of foreign and regional powers such as the United States and Turkiye – but if it is as rapid as the march to Damascus, it may be over before those players can even formulate a policy.

After all, Ankara will be more than happy to have the Kurdish militia threat eliminated next door, and Washington, despite its backing of the SDF, would decide to settle for the strongest horse in the race as long as it does not greatly impact American regional interests.

In light of the escalation on that front, HTS and its new national government are effectively attempting to unify the country’s territory and populations, with the explicit aim of creating a truly national Syria.

All the signs are present that it is dealing with the issue of political unification by advancing diplomatic measures across the country and even – to the disbelief of many who predicted a crackdown on minorities – striking agreements with Alawite leaders in the coastal regions, who have agreed to recognise the new authority.

Similar agreements could foreseeably be made with leading Kurdish figures after the operation concludes or even while the fighting takes place, in a two-pronged approach not unfamiliar to HTS.

There are also the other Syrian militias in the north of the country that the government will have to turn its attention to, chief amongst them being the SNA and its factions. That could likely be resolved without a fight, however, particularly if the HTS-led authorities strike an agreement with them and their Turkish backers would see the militias’ ranks absorbed into the new Syrian state and security forces.

Another significant issue that the new Syrian administration will confront in the near future is that of international legitimacy. Until now, HTS has been branded as a terrorist group by many Western nations, including the US and the UK, and even the United Nations itself still has the organisation on its terror list. Such a designation – imposed since at least 2017 – currently poses a major obstacle to the new Syrian administration’s formal legitimacy and recognition by the international community.

As with many matters, Al-Jolani has long realised that fact, and has actively let it be known to many media outlets over the past few years that he has distanced himself and his group from their historic ties with Al Qaeda. He has also been presenting a face of openness and tolerance towards Syria’s minorities and diverse makeup, as well as emphasising in recent interviews the importance of state institutions and the separation of powers rather than a one-man rule.

Such attitudes have been years in the making, in an attempt to show diplomats and organisations worldwide that there is an opportunity for the resumption and blossoming of national life in the country. To Western political figures, Al-Jolani and his crew may be ‘Islamists’, but they are not those unrestrained by regional borders and international norms.

HTS, its leadership, and its government are sending a message that Syria will soon be back, open for business, but this time the right kind. Western policymakers still need some convincing, and are biding their time while they still attempt to make sense of the situation. Despite gradual signs that the group may have its terror designations removed, it is currently still too early in the game.

It must not be ignored, however, that all of these steps the new Syrian government is taking can be drastically thrown off by another major challenge looming on the horizon: the occupation of more Syrian territory by an advancing Israeli army in the south-east. Syria is set for still more difficult times ahead but, for now, there is leadership and vision to give Syrians a somewhat more promising future.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Independent Press.

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