Tue 21 April 2026:

Gold prices have eased as investors wait to see whether the US and Iran will take part in talks after renewed tensions over the weekend, while a marginally firmer dollar added to the pressure.

Spot gold XAU was down 0.5 percent at $4,795.51 per ounce, as of 04:18 GMT, extending its fall from yesterday when it hit its lowest level since April 13. US gold futures GC.1 for June delivery fell 0.3 percent to $4,814.

The US dollar has edged up, making greenback-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold prices have fallen about 8 percent since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran.

__________________________________________________________________________

https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAtNxX8fewmiFmN7N22

__________________________________________________________________________

Why gold price is falling today?

“Gold was under pressure on Monday as rising uncertainty over the geopolitical situation in the Middle East lifted oil prices and reignited inflation concerns,” said Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade.

The USS Spruance intercepted the Iranian-flagged Touska over the weekend, with US Marines taking custody after warnings to stop were ignored. Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday, citing US breaches of the ceasefire, and redirected at least 25 commercial vessels away from Iranian ports.

How low can gold go in 2026?

My Fibonacci extension projects a 28% drop to $3,400 per ounce if gold breaks below the $4,281 October 2025 support. State Street assigns 20% probability to a $4,000 to $4,750 year-end range, flagging $4,000 to $4,100 as the structural floor. The World Gold Council’s Reflation Return scenario models $3,360 to $3,990. A weekly close below $4,281 confirms the bearish path.

Why is gold price falling today?

Gold fell 0.9% to $4,793 on Monday, April 20, 2026, after the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Brent crude surged 5.33% to $95.20, pushing Treasury yields higher and the Dollar Index to 98.47. Rising yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while the stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers.

What is the gold price prediction for year-end 2026?

Institutional forecasts span $4,000 to $6,300 for year-end 2026. JPMorgan targets $6,300, UBP and Deutsche Bank $6,000, UBS $5,600, Goldman Sachs $5,400. State Street flags $4,000 as the bear-case floor with 20% probability. The Reuters poll median across 30 analysts sits at $4,746.50 per ounce for the 2026 average, roughly 1% below current spot.

What happens if gold breaks below $4,300?

A confirmed weekly close below $4,281 invalidates the October 2025 breakout and opens the 200-day moving average near $4,260 as the next test. Below that cluster, my Fibonacci extension targets $3,400, the same zone that capped price between April and August 2025. State Street views $4,000 to $4,100 as the structural bull-bear dividing line for year-end 2026.

Is gold still in a bull market?

Technically, yes. Gold remains up roughly 40% year-over-year and 14% below the January $5,595 all-time high, but still trading inside a multi-month consolidation rather than a confirmed downtrend. A weekly close below $4,281 would be the first major warning sign. As mentioned in March crash analysis, the $4,200 to $4,280 zone is the bull-bear line.

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

__________________________________________________________________________

FOLLOW INDEPENDENT PRESS:

WhatsApp CHANNEL
https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAtNxX8fewmiFmN7N22