LABOUR IS ON COURSE FOR A LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN THE UK ELECTION: POLL

Sun 08 October 2023:

The opposition Labour Party in the United Kingdom is on track to score a landslide victory in a national election next year, according to an opinion poll published on Saturday.

Most of the polls put Labour, which gathers in northern England this weekend for its annual conference, roughly 20 points ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservatives, though observers warn that the margin could be shaky.

The Survation poll, carried out for campaign group 38 Degrees and published by the Observer newspaper, questioned more than 11,000 voters between Sept. 11-25 and then used a model to generate constituency-by-constituency results.

Its central projection was that Labour would win 420 seats, the Conservatives 149 seats and the Liberal Democrats 23, leaving Labour, who have been out of power since 2010, with a 190-seat majority in parliament’s lower House of Commons.

It predicted a range of 402-437 seats for Labour, and 132-169 seats for the Conservatives. At the last national election in 2019, the Conservatives won 365 seats and Labour 203.

Survation used modelling known as multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to reach constituency-level findings. Pollsters using the method successfully predicted the 2017 UK election result.

According to the Observer, 12 of Sunak’s cabinet ministers, including deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden and defence secretary Grant Shapps, face losing their seats under the expected outcome.

The polling, conducted ahead of the Conservative Party’s annual conference this week, discovered that the cost-of-living crisis and the status of the National Health Service were the two most important issues to voters in every district.

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

______________________________________________________________

FOLLOW INDEPENDENT PRESS:

TWITTER (CLICK HERE)
https://twitter.com/IpIndependent