AFD HITS RECORD 30% IN POLL, OPENS 10-POINT LEAD OVER MERZ CONSERVATIVES

Wed 16 September 2026:

Far-right party reaches its strongest polling level as support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU falls to a new low

Germany’s right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has climbed to a record 30% in a nationwide opinion poll, opening a 10-point lead over Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc, according to a GMS survey released Monday.

Support for Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), fell to 20% — the lowest figure recorded for the alliance by GMS.

The poll suggests that Merz’s governing coalition would struggle to secure a parliamentary majority if an election were held this week. The CDU/CSU’s 20% support combined with 11% for the Social Democrats would leave the coalition well short of a majority.

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AfD Gains as Conservatives Lose Ground

The latest figures represent a significant change since GMS conducted its previous survey in late July.

During that period, the AfD gained two percentage points, while the CDU/CSU dropped three points. The party has built its support around opposition to immigration and other right-wing positions.

The Greens increased by one point to 14%, while the Left Party also rose one point to 11%. The liberal Free Democrats fell to 4%, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance remained at 3%. Both parties are currently below Germany’s 5% electoral threshold for parliamentary representation.

Sharp Shift Since 2025 Election

The polling numbers underline the changing political landscape since Germany’s federal election on Feb. 23, 2025.

At that election, the CDU/CSU secured 28.5% of the vote, while the AfD won 20.8%. The latest GMS survey therefore represents a substantial improvement for the AfD alongside a marked decline in support for Merz’s conservatives.

The poll was released just days before regional elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, which are expected to provide another indication of the parties’ current strength.

Merz’s Leadership Under Pressure

The regional contests are also being closely watched as a test of Merz’s political standing following the conservatives’ major setback in Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD secured 43.8% in the Sept. 6 election in the state, delivering a heavy defeat to the CDU and intensifying questions about Merz’s leadership.

Media speculation about a possible change of chancellor has grown in recent weeks. Hendrik Wuest, the CDU premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, has been mentioned as one possible successor.

However, a leadership battle within the CDU following the state elections would not automatically lead to the dissolution of the Bundestag or a snap national election.

If political pressure ultimately forced Merz to step down, Germany’s parliament could instead elect another chancellor without holding a new nationwide vote.

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT PRESS AND NEWS AGENCIES

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