NEW TOOL WILL HELP PREDICT WHICH COVID-19 PATIENTS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE

Tue 12 January 2021:

COVID-19 pandemic causes so many problems for healthcare systems it is actually incredible. Resources became scarce and even the personnel was stretched thin. Having so many infected patients in hospitals means that making decisions about individual treatment is extremely hard. But now UK’s NHS workers will be able to use an online tool, which will predict the likelihood of deterioration in adults hospitalised with COVID-19.

When a patient is admitted to the hospital with COVID-19, no one really knows how well he will respond to treatment and how effectively his body will deal with the virus. Not to mention that this is a new virus, bothering us only since the beginning of 2020 (late 2019 in China). Some patients deteriorate quite quickly, while others deal with the infection a bit better. Predicting the progression of the disease is very difficult, but also necessary in order to plan the distribution of the resources and improving treatment of those who are very sick.

Now UK’s medical personnel can use a free online tool, which assesses 11 measurements routinely collected from patients, including age, gender, and physical measurements (such as oxygen levels) along with some standard laboratory tests and estimates the likelihood of deterioration in adults hospitalised with COVID-19. This tool produces ‘4C Deterioration Score’, which is similar in form of the ‘4C Mortality Score’ introduced before. Scientists assessed data from 74,944 individuals with COVID-19 in order to create this tool. Then they tested the tool in several hospitals and found that its predictions are fairly accurate. They can help recognize patients who are likely to face the deterioration of their condition even if they are in the “low risk” category.

Dr Rishi Gupta, first author of the study, said: “The scale and wide geographical coverage of the ISARIC4C study across the country was critical to the development of this prediction tool. Our analysis provides very encouraging evidence that the 4C Deterioration tool is likely to be useful for clinicians across England, Scotland and Wales to support clinical decision-making.”

Although this tool was created with the NHS in mind, it can actually be used in other countries almost instantly – it is that good. It aids the risk-stratification, which is necessary in order to know which patients need more attention and more aggressive therapies.

And that’s the thing – it is not possible to help everyone equally. There simply is not enough resources and medical staff. Understanding which patients are likely to deteriorate can help planning resources and treatment and ultimately save lives.

Source: UCL

Article originally Published in Technology.org CLICK HERE

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