GLOBAL GOODS TRADE GAINS MOMENTUM DESPITE GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

WTO Says AI-Related Demand Helps Sustain Merchandise Trade Growth

Global merchandise trade continued to strengthen in mid-2026 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over trade policies, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said Wednesday.

The WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer rose to 102 in July, up from 101.7 in June, indicating that trade volumes remained above trend and continued to gain momentum.

Readings above 100 signal above-trend trade activity, while figures below 100 indicate below-trend volumes.

AI Demand Supports Trade

“Strong demand for electronic components and other inputs associated with investment in artificial intelligence continues to support trade, helping to offset the negative effects of conflict in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies,” said the WTO.

Most of the barometer’s component indices remained at or above their baseline levels.

The electronic components index recorded the strongest reading at 104.9, reflecting robust demand for goods used in AI development. The export orders index climbed to 103.5, pointing to continued growth in merchandise trade in the coming months.

International air freight stood at 102.8, followed by agricultural raw materials at 102.6 and automotive products at 101.5.

Container shipping was the only component below trend, declining to 99.6.

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WTO Maintains 2026 Trade Outlook

The WTO previously forecast that global merchandise trade volumes would grow by 1.9% in 2026 under its baseline scenario, and by 1.4% under a high-energy-price scenario reflecting the effects of the Middle East conflict.

The organisation said sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to merchandise trade growth.

It also noted that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully reflected in second-quarter trade figures once the data become available.